This Friday is Christmas, so I suspect that the week in the Forex market will be relatively quiet.  I've got a few open positions that I held over the weekend that I'll be monitoring, but I don't anticipate entering into any new positions (that is, of course, unless I see an opportunity I can't pass up!).

I've currently got an AUD/USD short position that has an unrealized profit of about 100 pips so far.  I entered into this position following the breakdown out of the symmetrical triangle that I mentioned last week.

I'm also short EUR/USD, with an unrealized profit of about 340 pips so far.  This trade has really worked out well for me ever since I got in shortly after the break of the rising trendline.  I took a small portion of this trade off (about 20%) last week just so I could bank some profit, and I've moved my stoploss to breakeven.  I'll be looking to bank more profit if the pair shows any strength this week.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

The third position that I've currently got open is a long EUR/AUD position.  It hasn't taken off quite like the others, and I'm sitting at a 50 pip unrealized loss.  The pair is still above the strong support around 1.6000, so my reason for entering and continuing to be in the trade is still there.  We'll see what this pair does this week.

So, that's what I'm looking at for the upcoming week.  Good trading to all!

Just wanted to quickly note a few more potential setups this week before calling it a night...

AUD/USD

After a prolonged uptrend, AUD/USD has been consolidating as of late on the daily chart, forming a nice symmetrical triangle. Today, the pair broke down through the bottom line of the triangle, offering us a potential short opportunity.  Time will tell us whether this is actually the beginning of a significant move down.

EUR/GBP

Today's action saw the EUR/GBP test a rising trendline serving as support.  This could be a good opportunity, depending on how the next few days unfold.  If the pair respects the trendline, it could be a good long opportunity, especially considering that the general trend since the beginning of August has been up.  On the other hand, if the pair breaks down through the trendline, it might be a good short opportunity (after all, we did have a lower high to start off the month of December).  For now, I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for this pair to show its hand.

EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD may be forming a bottom after being in a downtrend for months.  The pair appears to be forming the right shoulder of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Today we saw a strong move up from the most recent bottom, and I'm expecting a move up, at least in the near term.  As always, I could be wrong though.

Greetings, one and all!  Tonight I've entered a long order on GBP/JPY, betting that the pair will move higher.  Let's get down to business and take a look at the charts...

On the daily chart, I see that we've made a higher high after a prolonged downtrend.  After making the higher high, GBP/JPY has retraced a bit, and today we saw a pin bar form on the daily, which may turn out to be a new higher low.

• Long Entry:  130.05
• Initial Stoploss:  126.99

Edit 2/15/09 6:50 PM:  Well, GBP/JPY moved in my favor enough for me to move my stop to just over breakeven, but I was then stopped out on the gap down over the weekend. At least I didn’t lose anything on the trade, though - preservation of capital is key!

Tonight I'm seeing what appears to be a rounded bottom forming on the EUR/USD daily chart near a rising trendline that is acting as support.  Since the bottom has appeared to form right at the rising trendline, I'm going to jump into a long position and see where it takes me.

Price is currently at a low point in the pattern, so it will be a relatively low-risk trade.  I see this as possibly being a longer-term trade than my standard trade, and I may be in it for a few weeks as the Euro slowly turns around and moves up.  Hopefully.

• Long Entry: 1.28660
• Initial Stoploss: 1.26778

Edit 2/16/09 8:00 PM:  EUR/USD broke down through the rising trendline and hit my stoploss, taking me out of my trade for a loss of 183.1 pips.  I was wrong on this one - on to the next trade.

I've entered a long position in AUD/USD tonight, counting on a bounce off of a rising trendline on the daily chart.  The pair has been moving mostly sideways to slightly up for the past few months.  Today the pair appears to be bouncing off of the slightly rising trendline connecting lows back to late October 2008.

Also note on the daily chart below the overhead resistance of the falling trendline going back to early January 2008.  I'm looking for the pair to retest that trendline, at which point I will have taken my profit on half of my position, and moved the stop on my other half to breakeven.  That is, if all goes as planned!

You can see the bounce off of the rising trendline a little better on the 4 hour chart, shown below.  Also, you get a better sense of how much room I have to work with before we hit the falling trendline.

So I'm long AUD/USD.  We'll see where this thing goes.  I'm counting on it moving up, but I could be wrong.

• Long Entry: 0.63695
• Initial Stoploss:  0.6240

Edit 2/4/09 10:20 AM:  Ok, so I feel like a bit of a dufus on this one.  My entry was correct, and AUD/USD made a nice move up after I got on board, but I failed to take profit on half of my position last night when my profit was at 1R.  Overnight the pair took about a 150 pip drop in an hour and took me out of my position at just over breakeven.  So, while I should have been able to bank some pips, I walk away with only 12.9 pips on each half of the trade.  That's ok, though - this is just a reminder that I need to stick to my rules.