There's a pin bar forming on the USD/JPY daily chart tonight.  The predominant trend is down, and a nice pin bar has formed at what I'm expecting to be the top of a retracement.  Of course, as always, I could be wrong.  Check out the chart...

I closed out my USD/JPY long position tonight as the pair has hit the falling trendline on the daily chart.  I've taken my profits and will wait to see what happens next.  Here's the daily chart...

 

If the pair breaks the down trendline and continues its move up, I'll be prepared with a long order to get back in.  Entering a buy order just above the recent high of 98.580.  We'll see if it gets triggered.

• Long Entry:  98.65
• Initial Stoploss:  97.30

I took a long tonight in USD/JPY.  The pair has made a higher high after putting in a double bottom on the daily chart.  It's retraced back to the rising trendline and has bounced nicely off the line.  I'm long from 94.775 with an initial stoploss just below the recent low at 93.5.  Below is the daily chart...

• Long Entry: 94.775
• Initial Stoploss: 93.5

Today saw USD/JPY, and all JPY crosses for that matter, spike down to varying degrees.  After putting in a bottom around 10:00 CST this morning, all of the JPY crosses have since rallied off of their lows for the day.

I'm specifically interested in USD/JPY, though, because the low that it bounced off of today was within 2.5 pips of the prior low established on December 16, setting the table for a double bottom reversal.  Also, today's candle, though technically not qualifying as a true pin bar, has "pin bar-ish" qualities.  That is, the bears were clearly in control as the pair dropped and bottomed out earlier this morning, but the bulls have since taken control and forced the pair back up.

So I'm jumping in to USD/JPY with another long position.  Since the break of the down trendline back at the end of December/beginning of January, we've been in a bit of a sideways market.  I'm counting on support at 87.00 holding and the pair remaining in a sideways trend, or, better yet, beginning a new uptrend.  Of course, I could be wrong.  I'm placing my stop just below the lows of the possible double bottom.

• Long Entry:  88.964
• Initial Stoploss:  86.99

Edit 1/25/09 8:30 PM: The USD/JPY hasn't moved up like I had expected. Instead, it has kind of just waffled around my entry point, moving mostly sideways. So, while the pair is a mere 30 pips above breakeven, I'm taking this opportunity to move my stop up to just above breakeven. If the pair continues to move up, great! If it doesn't, I'll allow the trade to die on the vine and get out with a scratch trade and my capital intact.

I've entered a long position in USD/JPY tonight.  The pair has been in steady downtrend for several months and is finally showing signs of taking a breather.

The pair rallied nicely in the second half of December, breaking the down trendline.  The pair has fallen since the beginning on January, but now appears to be making a higher low and turning north again.  The bullish engulfing pattern on today's daily chart is what caused me to pull the trigger and bet on USD/JPY rising.

Ok, so it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern.

Today's open was slightly higher than yesterday's close (by about 10 pips), but what I see on the daily chart is enough like a bullish engulfing pattern to make me feel comfortable entering a long position.  The action over the past two days shows bears pushing the price down yesterday at the end of about a week-long downtrend; today the bulls took over with conviction, pushing the dollar up past yesterday's high.  So, while it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern, the reasons for trading a bullish engulfing pattern are there.

So, I'm long with my stop just below today's low, betting that this pair will rise.  However, as my last trade showed me, I could be wrong!

• Long Entry:  89.994
• Initial Stoploss:  88.450

Edit 1/19/2009 7:30 PM: After moving up for a couple of days, the pair as retraced a bit today. Though my position hasn't yet hit 1R, I've moved my stoploss to breakeven, which is below today's low, to protect my capital. Hopefully tomorrow will see USD/JPY resuming its move up.

Edit 1/20/2009 9:00 PM: My stop at breakeven was hit today, taking me out of the trade.  After an initial thrust up, the pair didn't seem to have the follow-through that I had expected.  So, I'm happy to be out with a scratch trade.  The pair may resume its move up, but for now, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and watch.