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Significant Areas on EUR/USD Daily Chart

May 6, 2008 21:57 by JEB

After a long run up, EUR/USD appears to have turned down, or at least, turned sideways.  I'd like to comment on the recent activity on the daily chart and a couple of significant areas of support.  Check out the chart below.  On Friday, EUR/USD came down and touched a recent area of support around 1.5350 that was first established as an area of support back on March 22.  This week, this area has been confirmed as an area of support as price has "bounced" off of it.  If it should come back down and break through this area, the next significant support is approximately 350 pips lower around 1.5000, which was tested as resistance multiple times in January of this year and late last year before EUR/USD broke through it in late February.  If the pair can break down through the support at 1.5350, there won't be much in its way to stop it before it reaches 1.5000.  I'll be keeping my eye on this pair to see how it acts around this key level over the next few days and weeks.

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USD/CHF Doji At Resistance

April 27, 2008 20:02 by JEB

USD/CHF is providing an interesting short opportunity.  The long-term trend of this pair is down, so I am looking for short opporunities - I won't consider a long position.  On Friday, the rate hit the down trendline, which held as resistance, and fell back to where the pair opened.  As result, USD/CHF has formed a doji.  A doji is a candlestick pattern that forms when a security's open and close are virtually equal.  The candlestick pattern looks like a plus sign or a cross.  Investopedia.com gives a good description on how to interpret doji candlesticks:

Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding price action and future confirmation. Ideally, but not necessarily, the open and close should be equal. While a doji with an equal open and close would be considered more robust, it is more important to capture the essence of the candlestick. Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level. The result is a standoff. Neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control and a turning point could be developing.

In the case of USD/CHF, the open and close differ by less than 3 pips.  Investopedia.com goes on the discuss the implications of a doji in the context of a trend:

The relevance of a doji depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks. After an advance, or long white candlestick, a doji signals that the buying pressure is starting to weaken.  Doji alone are not enough to mark a reversal and further confirmation may be warranted.

Our doji follows two white wide-range bodies, so buying pressure is weakening.  Furthermore, since we're at resistance and it appears to be holding, we've got more reason to be bearish.  I will be placing a sell limit order just below the low of the doji so that I can catch it if it retraces back towards support.  My stop will be just above the high of the doji and just beyond resistance.

  • Order = Sell Limit
  • Limit Price = 1.02914 (10 pips below today's low)
  • Stop Loss = 1.04410 (10 pips above yesterday's high)
  • 1st Profit Target = 1.02166 (1/2R)
  • 2nd Profit Target = 1.01418 (1R)
  • 3rd Profit Target = Let it ride

 

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