USD/CAD is hanging around a rising trendline that has served as support for the pair in the past. The daily chart below shows the trend beginning in early November last year, with it testing the trend line in February and a couple of times in March, and now again for the second time in April. I'm going to put a buy limit order ten pips above today's high. I like these kind of setups because they're low-risk, since the logical place for my stop is just below the trendline. In this case, my stop will be ten pips below Thursday's low. Most times that I can catch a currency pair reversing at a point of support or resistance, I will look for a low-risk entry on a break the opposite way, with my stop just beyond the area of support or resistance. I prefer this to trying to catch a breakout, because I can use a stop that's closer to my entry.
I should probably clarify what I mean by "low-risk" in this case. I size my positions relative to how far my initial stop is from my entry point. So I'll risk the same amount of my account on a trade where my initial stop is 300 pips away from my entry versus a trade where my initial stop is only 100 pips away; I'll just use a smaller position on the trade with the 300 point stop. So, technically, all of my trades carry roughly the same amount of risk. This particular trade is a "low-risk" trade for me in the sense that since my profit targets are multiples of R (my initial risk), if my initial risk is a small amount of pips, then the currency pair doesn't have to travel as far in my direction for my profit targets to be hit as it would if my initial risk was larger. So, with that said, we'll see what happens on this one.
- Order = Buy Limit
- Limit Price = 1.01048 (10 pips below today's low)
- Stop Loss = 0.99780 (10 pips above recent high)
- 1st Profit Target = 1.01682 (1/2R)
- 2nd Profit Target = 1.02316 (1R)
- 3rd Profit Target = Let it ride
Also, by the way, not much action today on the other pairs I watch, except for GBP/USD which dropped like a rock back to the trendline that it broke out of last Thursday.
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