USD/CHF is providing an interesting short opportunity. The long-term trend of this pair is down, so I am looking for short opporunities - I won't consider a long position. On Friday, the rate hit the down trendline, which held as resistance, and fell back to where the pair opened. As result, USD/CHF has formed a doji. A doji is a candlestick pattern that forms when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The candlestick pattern looks like a plus sign or a cross. Investopedia.com gives a good description on how to interpret doji candlesticks:
Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding price action and future confirmation. Ideally, but not necessarily, the open and close should be equal. While a doji with an equal open and close would be considered more robust, it is more important to capture the essence of the candlestick. Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level. The result is a standoff. Neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control and a turning point could be developing.
In the case of USD/CHF, the open and close differ by less than 3 pips. Investopedia.com goes on the discuss the implications of a doji in the context of a trend:
The relevance of a doji depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks. After an advance, or long white candlestick, a doji signals that the buying pressure is starting to weaken. Doji alone are not enough to mark a reversal and further confirmation may be warranted.
Our doji follows two white wide-range bodies, so buying pressure is weakening. Furthermore, since we're at resistance and it appears to be holding, we've got more reason to be bearish. I will be placing a sell limit order just below the low of the doji so that I can catch it if it retraces back towards support. My stop will be just above the high of the doji and just beyond resistance.
- Order = Sell Limit
- Limit Price = 1.02914 (10 pips below today's low)
- Stop Loss = 1.04410 (10 pips above yesterday's high)
- 1st Profit Target = 1.02166 (1/2R)
- 2nd Profit Target = 1.01418 (1R)
- 3rd Profit Target = Let it ride
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