USD/CAD at Rising Trendline

December 8, 2008 22:10 by Jon

A long opportunity may be shaping up on USD/CAD.  The pair is in an uptrend, and the daily chart shows the pair testing the rising trendline.  So far, it is respecting the trendline as support.

Also, note the area of resistance at 1.3000 that has been tested three times in the past three months.  If price moves up again, it'll be interesting to see how it behaves around this area.

I'm going to test the waters with a buy order just above today's high, with an initial stop below the rising trendline.  If the pair respects the trendline and takes out the current high on today's bar, I'll expect it to continue to move in my direction.  As always, though, I could be wrong!

  • Long Order: 1.2620
  • Initial Stoploss: 1.2437
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Categories: Discretionary Trading
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Comments

December 9. 2008 00:31

USDCAD is such a pain in the arse for me. Just when it should break, it consolidates some more. Just when it should consolidate, it breaks...in the wrong direction. It will respect a trendline until I believe, and then crush me. I try to fade what I think it should do (i.e. fade myself), and inexplicably it decides to obey "the rules". I'm afeared of this currency pair.

Jay

December 9. 2008 08:39

I've not traded this pair as much as others, so I don't have much of a track record with it yet, but it's been riding the trendline up so nicely, I couldn't resist. I'm interested to see how it behaves, though, given your experiences. It looks like my long orders were hit this morning, so we'll see what happens.

Jon

December 9. 2008 21:36

I be watchin', afeared...

jay

December 9. 2008 22:23

Well, I've been on both sides of breakeven today. The trendline hasn't been penetrated yet, though. We're consolidating on the 1 hour into a nice tight symmetric triangle, so it's going to break one way or the other. I vote for a break to the upside. Smile

Jon

December 10. 2008 09:49

Liquidity could be an issue today -- and I expect offers above 12650. But if you can get through 12665 I think you have a real shot at the high 27s. (Highs after the BoC action.) Not sure what your timeframe is on this trade, but your stop looks safe...for now. ;)

jay

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